The Cupcake Index CFB

How it works

Every Monday morning the model downloads the weekend's results and rebuilds the rankings from scratch. Each team gets a set of scores from 0 to 100, where 50 is average. The sliders decide how much each score counts.

The cupcake problem (college)

Every FCS opponent is rated like a team about 25 points worse than an average FBS team, and FCS games count only 25% as much in the power rating. Margins are capped at 24 points. Beating an FCS team 70-0 proves about as much as a close loss to an average FBS team. On top of that, the Cupcake score measures how much of a schedule was FCS and bottom-tier FBS opponents. A higher Cupcake score counts against a team. It only counts games already played: a cupcake still on the schedule is added once the game is final.

NFL

NFL rankings use the same engine without the Cupcake factor. Résumé is measured against a top-8 team, efficiency is opponent-adjusted EPA per play, and margins are capped at 21 points. Each team's panel shows the starting QB for every game and flags when someone other than the usual starter played or is listed to start. The rating itself doesn't know about QB changes, so a ⚠ is a good reason to trust it less. Monday's update runs before Monday Night Football. Tuesday's update adds that game.

Early season

In the first few weeks there isn't enough data, so ratings start from a preseason guess: last year's rating scaled by returning production, plus roster talent. That guess fades to zero within a few weeks. After that it's pure on-field results.

Keeping it honest

Each week the ratings pick every game of the following week and set their own point spread. The Picks tab compares that spread with sportsbook lines and tracks how often the model is right, both straight up and against the spread.

Scores, stats and standings

Live scores, box scores, player stats, rosters and standings load straight from ESPN's public data feed in your browser. They update automatically every 30 seconds while games are in progress.